Introduction
Inspired by ...

How2PlayShort

Town

Mafia

Cupid

dawn start makes the setup way too townsided.

gives both templars a chance to make a code and discuss who outs which will always guarantee one clear. dreams, both real and fake, will almost surely reveal one mafia. and if one mafia isn't revealed through dreams then one mafia will be pretty obvious nonetheless. not getting a mafia d1 seems really rare.

then, there's just so much that can go wrong from the mafia's side after that. they can be assigned a lover through cupid, then not being able to give a dream report without a risk of possibly slipping. that means that if the other cupid target ends up being clear somehow (there's a high chance the 2nd templar is chosen, or someone who's practically confirmed dreamer from the perspective of the templar himself) then the mafia has absolutely no way of winning as that would basically confirm him.

the only way i really see mafia having ANY sort of chance in this setup is if a townie was lynched d1...

...which, even if that DOES happen, will still eventually force the mafia into a 3 way lylo. at that point, the mafia has, at best, a 66% chance of winning... and that's considering all of the luck they've gotten so far.

long story short, this setup should have a normal night start. or, if anything, a day start might help out the mafia as well. this setup only gives the mafia a chance of winning if they happen to get lucky enough with their fake dreams, and are lucky enough (again) to win a 3 way lylo. having to do all that just for a chance of victory in a 3 way lylo isn't worth it, you can do the same in classic mafia without having to try NEARLY as hard.

First thanks for your input. But the following...
Dreams don't mean much on day 1 they are mostly used for the D2/3 lynches (1st temp tells 2nd temp the dreams). Also cupid picks don't count as visits. D1 lynch is 40-40-20, 60% in town's favor with lynching the cupid the priority.

Even if a mafia is lynched D1 then mafia has good chances of winning no matter who the cupid paired with whom.

It can be argued that if town is lynched day1 then it's hard for town not to lose to maf+cupid.

Ace'd so far. btw the reason cupid doesn't have more wins in percentage is that the times their targets die, supposedly they are losing based on the coding but there's a bug so in the game it shows they won.