I believe my initial thought that bp shouldn't claim d1 is incorrect. If he doesn't claim d1, mafia can simply NK and stalk until they discover both power roles (bp + oracle). At 6-way mylo, they can then cc bp, giving town a 1/6 chance of winning (based purely on odds). Had bp claimed, town would have a 1/3 chance at winning simply because he would remain uncc'd. This setup appears to place a lot of responsibility on the bp, since he must lead 2 lynches in a row, one of which is on potential 6-way mylo.
deletedalmost 14 years
Stop being fucking stupid people, this is so town sided. Stop losing plx
Well, Saints, I'll explain! Lets assume a blue dies night 1. If BP claims day 1 and mafia doesn't cc, BP is clear day 1 and day 2. If mafia shoots BP night 2, BP then dies night 3. But on day 2 oracle should claim. If mafia cc's oracle, you lynch between the cc (blues or oracle). Mafia can only kill one person night 3, so the next day SOMEONE will still be clear. Tada!
deletedalmost 14 years
Technically, I believe mafia's optimal move is to NK n1. bp will still claim and lead a lynch, but with less odds of lynching correctly. Assuming he doesn't lynch correctly (2/3), then mafia kills a non-bp, and bp leads again with a 1/2 chance of lynching correctly. Had bp correctly chosen a lynch d1 (1/3), town's chance of winning = 1/4 + 3/4*1/2 = 5/8. Expected value for town = 1/3*5/8 + 2/3*1/2 = 5/24 + 8/24 = 13/24.
(see next post)
deletedalmost 14 years
If mafia kills n1, assuming they kill blue, bp will claim and lead a lynch. He has 2/5 chance getting it right, 3/5 chance getting it wrong. If he gets it wrong, mafia shoots bp, he leads again with a 1/2 chance of getting it right. If he got it the d1 lynch right, town's chance of winning (after mafia shoots bp) = 5/8. Expected value = 2/5*5/8 + 3/5*1/2 = 11/20.
11/20 > 13/24, so mafia is better off NKing. However, the differential is only 0.833%, so this is rather insignificant. Conclusion: Based on pure odds, whether mafia NK n1 or not, their expected value of winning is nearly the same according to my calculations.
deletedalmost 14 years
mafia nking n1 adds in the meta factor of mafia being people who read epicmafia forums
deletedalmost 14 years
Indeed. I'm merely pointing out chances of winning based purely on odds.
I find that bussing works quite well in this setup. There are no investigative roles, so town only has scumhunting to go off of. Furthermore, mafia's optimal move is to hit the bp, so a bussing mafia will never be asked "Why didn't you die after leading on the first mafia?" If mafia is good at bussing (not being too obvious, not tunneling beyond normal, providing reasoning, reacting properly, etc.), then I think they should consider using the strategy more often than they would in other setups.
deletedalmost 14 years
Also, IndexCards brought up an interesting point. Since mafia's optimal move is to hit the bp, the oracle will never die (assuming mafia NKs on 4-way mylo). If oracle will never be killed, it seems that oracle's optimal move should be to claim d1. He will remain uncc'd for the rest of the game and, more importantly, can help lead town d1.
deletedalmost 14 years
Jezeb may you add, that oracle can claim D1 to avoid mafia ccing oracle at mylo.
Incarcerated
