Everybody has their own role, yet everyone is essentially blue. maf have to individually cc three power roles. Also, implosion actually came up with this ages before I did. ._.
*Ahem*, the chances that lynching between the first group of ccs is 50/50, in the event that town mishammers, the mafia will be instantly lynched the next day, then town will be hammering inbetween two more, town mishammers here (25% chance of happening.) town loses, town correctly hammers, and they have to go through ANOTHER hammer. Town mishammers that, they lose. (12.5%) In the event that town hammers correctly in the first cc, there's a 50/50 as to whether they'll mishammer the next cc, if they do, there's a 50/50 they'll mishammer the next one, AKA lose. (12.5%) If town correctly hammers the second cc in a row, town has won. (25%) So mafia winrate sums up to 25% + 12.5% + 12.5%, which is 50% EXACTLY. TL;DR: Theoretically mafia should win EXACTLY as much as town.